Economics
Theoretical Behavior
LN Market-share
The behavior of users in terms of their activity on the LN is based on theoretical assumptions. The market share of participants refers to the impact Plenny has on the Bitcoin Lightning Network. It indicates the turnover generated by participating Lightning Nodes across the LN in sat but is displayed as the turnover facilitated by Plenny converted to USD. This figure does not refer to the additional turnover in PL2 of these Lightning Nodes via Plenny within the Ethereum ecosystem.
This hypothesis assumes 10% market penetration via a standard S-shaped adoption curve and extrapolates the potential market size over five years. The assumptions refer to the total market share of participating Lightning Nodes and arrive at the payment channel turnover.
Find more details: Working Paper
To sum up, this sample calculation randomly assumes that more than 32 million USD in turnover could potentially be generated in Year 1 if BTC/USD is at 60,000.00 and the price neither falls nor rises over the next five years at the given exchange rate.
In general, these turnover assumptions are random and do not constitute reliable predictions or make any kind of citable forecasting nor promise for potential volumes.
